伊朗令人不安的崛起

美国决定打击参与支持武装民兵行动的驻伊拉克伊朗间谍,这不过是伊朗对危机重重的伊拉克施加巨大影响的又一证明。而美国推翻萨达姆·侯赛因和阿富汗塔利班政权实际上除去了过去20年来一直包围着伊朗的两大钳制因素,从而使伊朗对伊拉克的影响力进一步增强。不仅如此,石油价格居高不下充盈了伊朗国库,而美国在伊拉克陷入困境和中俄国际影响力日益增长所带来的机遇令伊朗获益匪浅。

伊朗也在收获自己长期投资所结出的果实。伊朗从20实际80年代初就开始支持伊拉克什叶派团体,与叙利亚的联盟关系也同样源远流长。伊朗协助在黎巴嫩建立黎真主党,真主党不久前刚刚在与以色列的正面交火中保存了实力,现在已经发展成以西方为后盾的反叙利亚政府的头号敌人。伊朗对巴勒斯坦的投资历史没那么悠久,但它对在其他地方到处碰壁的以哈马斯为首的政府的支持却同样不可小觑。凭借着国内的7000万人口,伊朗对科威特、沙特阿拉伯、巴林和阿联酋等诸多国家的什叶派团体都具有潜在的影响力。

伊朗的崛起引起了中东阿拉伯国家的警惕,特别是在沙特和约旦,此外还有埃及。该地区的阿拉伯国家大都以逊尼派人口为主体,而伊朗是唯一一个什叶派占主导地位的国家,这里的极端伊斯兰主义与赋予多数阿拉伯反抗运动力量的经过政治化的伊斯兰主义十分吻合,而伊朗与美国的军事对抗和对与以色列交战组织的鼎力支持无论在阿拉伯地区的街谈巷议中还是阿拉伯国家的正规媒体上都受到人们热烈的追捧。从另一个层面上,伊朗的崛起有可能重新唤起逊尼派和什叶派、波斯人和阿拉伯人过去曾经存在的仇恨,而传说中伊朗制造核武器的企图让伊朗的崛起更加如虎添翼。

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