伊朗的以攻为守

伊朗吵嚷不休、纷争不止的领导人们以实际行动决定拒绝欧盟和美国的出价—即如果伊朗终止生产浓缩铀的活动,他们将为其提供一座核反应堆、飞机零部件,并开展经济合作等诸多条件。许多人希望伊朗的领导人们尽管行事极端,但至少为了避免制裁,也应该接受这些条件—否则即使中国和俄罗斯拒绝在联合国安理会支持制裁的动议,制裁还是不可避免。美国和欧盟这次异常团结,并且能够有效地切断伊朗同世界银行体系的联系,禁止伊朗领导人去西方国家,并停止除食物和药品外的一切向伊朗的商品出口。

但伊朗的领导人们并没有被动地等待制裁,而是决定通过组织对以色列的进攻来挑起一场中东危机。他们的目的是为了阻止美国和欧盟即将造成的另一场危机—欧洲的金融市场和日常政治生活只能承受如此程度的冲突。他们可能还希望能借此动摇欧盟/美国现有的统一立场。

另外,伊朗夺取穆斯林世界领导权的进程正受到伊拉克冲突的妨碍。在这场冲突中,伊朗支持屠杀逊尼派的什叶派武装分子。在伊拉克的每一个轰炸与处决的血腥日子都提醒着阿拉伯人:伊朗人既非阿拉伯人,也非逊尼派。但攻击以色列可以使穆斯林们团结起来,同时也能得到阿拉伯人的感激。

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