A Dieta Nuclear do Irão

MADRID - Após longos anos de esforços internacionais infrutíferos para acabar com as manobras astutas do Irão para desenvolver armas nucleares, a questão hoje já não é saber se o Ocidente pode impedir a nuclearização do arsenal militar do Irão, mas sim se o regime islâmico desmorona primeiro. Infelizmente, se isso não acontecer, a única opção para travar o Irão é a guerra - e a guerra é uma péssima opção.

Vale a pena invocar o Paquistão ao avaliar se as sanções agora impostas ao Irão forçarão o país a prescindir do seu programa nuclear. Em 1965, o Ministro dos Negócios Estrangeiros paquistanês, Zulficar Ali Bhutto, fez uma declaração que ficou famosa: se a Índia, seu inimigo confesso, se nuclearizasse, o seu país iria "comer erva e até passar fome", para conseguir desenvolver a sua própria bomba nuclear. Actualmente, o Paquistão, um país quase falido à beira da desintegração, possui mais ogivas nucleares do que a Índia.

O regime teocrático do Irão, imerso numa luta imensa pela resistência contra o que considera uma aliança profana entre Israel, o "Grande Satã" americano e um mundo árabe circundante que abomina as suas ambições hegemónicas, não abdicará facilmente das suas ambições nucleares. Na verdade, as armas nucleares parecem ser a única via real para a auto-preservação do regime.

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