乱作一团的伊朗总统政治

华盛顿哥伦比亚特区—伊朗前总统莫哈默德·哈塔米做出决定不去再度角逐总统大选,这已经显示出伊朗的总统政治现在混乱到何种地步。要想解开这团乱麻, 最重要的不是牢记谁会当选,而是记住这样一个选择将会如何反映出这个国家的最高领袖:阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊的意图。

不幸的是,最可能出现的结果将是这个伊斯兰共和国继续转变,从一个文官政府转化为一个军官国家,其中军事力量会在决定政治和经济事宜中发挥主要作用。

预测谁的确将会赢得选举是不可能的,但这不是因为伊朗是个民主国家。担任军事力量总司令的阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊同时还监督着举行选举的机构:监护委员会和内政部 (它们监督选举的程序),还有“巴西吉”民兵部队和革命卫队(IRGC)(它们非官方地控制着票箱和计票程序)。

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