La política nuclear de Irán del menos es más

NUEVA YORK – La reciente National Intelligence Estimate (Evaluación Nacional de Inteligencia, NIE por sus siglas en inglés) de Estados Unidos, que señala que Irán alguna vez tuvo un "programa de armas nucleares" pero lo suspendió en 2003, significa que tal vez no habrá un ataque estadounidense contra ese país durante la administración Bush. ¿Cómo podría el presidente de Estados Unidos explicarle al mundo un bombardeo contra instalaciones de armas nucleares que sus propios servicios de inteligencia han informado que no existen?

Así, con toda probabilidad el mundo se ha librado de una política que habría sido tan inútil como destructiva. En efecto, el acto que habría prácticamente garantizado que Irán obtuviera armas nucleares habría sido atacarlo. (Nueve años después del bombardeo israelí contra el reactor nuclear de Iraq en Osirak en 1981, Saddam Hussein estaba a menos de un año de conseguir una bomba atómica.)

Sin embargo, la NIE llegó a sus conclusiones por una ruta extraña. Toda persona con conocimientos técnicos sabe que los métodos para obtener energía nuclear civil y para fabricar armas nucleares son los mismos, salvo por algunos pasos relativamente sencillos al final del proceso. La parte complicada es obtener materiales fisionables –plutonio o uranio altamente enriquecido. Una vez que se consiguen, cualquier país –o incluso algún grupo terrorista sofisticado—puede hacer el resto.

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