Irans Atompolitik nach dem Motto „Weniger ist mehr“

NEW YORK – Der jüngste Bericht der Geheimdienste (National Intelligence Estimate) der Vereinigten Staaten, in dem dargelegt wird, der Iran habe einmal ein „Atomwaffenprogramm“ betrieben, dieses jedoch 2003 eingestellt, bedeutet, dass Amerika den Iran in Bushs Amtszeit wahrscheinlich nicht angreifen wird. Wie könnte der amerikanische Präsident der Welt erklären, dass er Atomwaffenanlagen bombardiert, von denen seine eigenen Geheimdienste behaupten, es gebe sie nicht?

Also wurde der Welt aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach eine Maßnahme erspart, die ebenso zwecklos wie zerstörerisch gewesen wäre. Tatsächlich würde gerade ein Angriff auf den Iran am sichersten garantieren, dass dieser sich Atomwaffen beschafft. (Neun Jahre nach Israels Bombenangriff auf den irakischen Atomreaktor in Osirak 1981 war Saddam Hussein trotzdem nur ein Jahr von der Entwicklung einer Atombombe entfernt.)

Doch das National Intelligence Estimate gelangte auf verschlungenen Pfaden zu seinem Ergebnis. Jeder technisch kompetente Mensch weiß, dass die Entwicklungsverfahren für die zivil nutzbare Atomenergie und für Atomwaffen die gleichen sind, bis auf die letzten wenigen und vergleichsweise einfachen Schritte. Die Schwierigkeit besteht darin, sich die spaltbaren Materialien zu beschaffen – Plutonium oder hochangereichertes Uran. Sobald das geschehen ist, kann jeder Staat – oder sogar eine raffinierte terroristische Gruppierung – den Rest erledigen.

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