Méně je více v jaderné politice Íránu

NEW YORK – Nedávný přehled úsudků amerických tajných služeb National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) říká, že Írán sice kdysi měl „program vývoje jaderných zbraní“, ale v roce 2003 jej přerušil, což znamená, že za Bushovy administrativy k americkému útoku na Írán pravděpodobně nedojde. Jak by americký prezident světu vysvětlil, proč bombarduje zařízení k výrobě jaderných zbraní, o nichž jeho vlastní zpravodajské služby prohlásily, že neexistují?

Svět byl tedy se vší pravděpodobností ušetřen politiky, která by byla stejně marná jako ničivá. Vždyť činem, který by s největší jistotou zaručil, že si Írán jaderné zbraně pořídí, by bylo právě jeho napadení. (Devět let po izraelském bombardování iráckého jaderného reaktoru v Osiraku roku 1981 zbýval Saddámu Husajnovi k získání atomové bomby navzdory náletu už jen rok.)

Avšak NIE ke svému závěru dospěla zvláštním způsobem. Každý odborně kvalifikovaný člověk ví, že k civilní jaderné energii a k jaderným zbraním vede tatáž cesta, kromě několika posledních, poměrně jednoduchých kroků. Náročnou částí je získání štěpných materiálů – plutonia nebo vysoce obohaceného uranu. Jakmile je toto hotovo, zbytek dokáže udělat kterýkoli stát – anebo dokonce sofistikovaná teroristická skupina.

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