伊朗的“少即多”核政策

纽约——不久前,美国国家情报估测(NIE)的报告称伊朗曾有过“核武器计划”,但已于2003年中止。这意味着布什执政期间美国不大会进攻伊朗。否则,对于他自己的情报机构都说不存在的核武器设施,美国总统要怎么向世界解释轰炸的理由?

因此,世界很可能躲过了一项既无用又有害的政策。其实,进攻伊朗才是最有可能促使伊朗获得核武器的行为。(1981年以色列轰炸了伊拉克Osirak的核反应堆,然而九年后,萨达姆·侯赛因还是具备了在一年内制造出原子弹的能力。)

不过,NIE得出这个结论的路线十分怪异。每个具备一定技术知识的人都知道,民用核能和核武器的研制途径除了最后几个相对简单的步骤外都是一样的。难处在于如何取得裂变物质——钚或高浓缩铀。这个问题一旦解决,其他的任何国家——甚至一个严密的恐怖主义组织——也可以完成。

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