La opción de línea dura de Irán

Es probable que la elección del alcalde de línea dura de Teherán, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, para ser el próximo presidente de Irán empeore las relaciones con el Occidente y el aislamiento internacional del país. Sin embargo, en términos internos, es probable que al régimen islámico le vaya mejor que con si hubiera habido un resultado más moderado.

Es claro que Ahmadinejad tiene una base de apoyo real. Pero que se haya presentado como un populista, que haya hablado de ayudar a los pobres, que haya condenado el funcionamiento del gobierno y que haya actuado casi como candidato de oposición es irrelevante: era el elegido del régimen y al final recibió ayuda oficial incluso en contra de otros candidatos de línea dura.

El régimen jugó sus cartas de manera brillante. Convirtió a Hashemi Rafsanjani, ligeramente más pragmático y que no estaba de acuerdo con ciertas políticas actuales, en la figura del "sistema" y a su propio hombre en el rebelde. Así, el gobierno utilizó los sentimientos en contra del sistema para revitalizar su mando. El hecho de que el último presidente, Muhammad Khatami, apoyara el movimiento reformista --si bien de manera tímida y al final no logró nada-- simplemente subraya la forma tan absoluta en que los gobernantes voltearon la situación política.

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