«Жесткий» выбор Ирана

Избрание на пост президента Ирана сторонника жесткого курса мэра Тегерана Махмуда Ахмадинежада, скорее всего, приведет к ухудшению отношений с Западом и к международной изоляции страны. Однако с точки зрения внутренней ситуации, исламистскому режиму при нем, скорее всего, будет лучше, чем в случае более умеренного результата.

Ахмадинежад явно имеет реальную базу поддержки. Но тот факт, что его предвыборная кампания носила популистский характер, что он говорил о помощи бедным, осуждал деятельность правительства и действовал почти как оппозиционный кандидат, не имеет значения: он представляет собой выбор режима и, в конечном счете, он получил официальную помощь в борьбе против своих соперников, даже кандидатов из числа сторонников жесткого курса.

Режим прекрасно разыграл свою карту. Он превратил слегка более прагматичного Хашеми Рафсанжани, который не соглашался с некоторыми аспектами нынешней политики, в фигуру «истэблишмента», а своего собственного ставленника в бунтовщика. Правительство, таким образом, использовало направленные против истэблишмента настроения для оживления собственного правления. Тот факт, что последний президент Мухаммад Хатами был сторонником реформистского движения – хоть и робким и, в конечном счете, ничего не достигнувшим – только подчеркивает, как основательно правители изменили политическую ситуацию в стране.

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