Le choix radical de l'Iran

Le choix des Iraniens de porter au pouvoir le maire radical de Téhéran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, risque de détériorer les relations avec l'Occident et d'accentuer l'isolation du pays au niveau international. Pourtant, en termes de politique nationale, le régime islamiste s'en portera sans doute mieux que si un candidat plus modéré l'avait emporté.

Il apparaît clairement qu'Ahmadinejad dispose d'une réelle base de soutien. Le fait qu'il se soit présenté comme un populiste, qu'il ait parlé d'aider les pauvres, condamné le gouvernement et agi pratiquement comme un candidat d'opposition ne compte pas : il incarnait le choix du régime, et a fini par recevoir une aide officielle y compris contre des rivaux radicaux.

Le régime a fait preuve d'une grande habileté. Il a transformé le candidat un peu plus pragmatique Hashemi Rafsanjani, en désaccord avec certaines politiques gouvernementales, en personnage en harmonie avec l'ordre établi, et son propre candidat en rebelle. Le gouvernement a ainsi utilisé le ressentiment contre l'establishment pour consolider son propre pouvoir. Étant donné que l'ancien président, Mohammad Khatami, soutenait le mouvement réformiste, m�me s'il était peu téméraire et qu'il n'a au final rien accompli, cela ne fait que souligner � quel point les dirigeants ont retourné � leur avantage la situation politique.

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