Chris Van Es

La enferma "economía de los mulás" en Irán

ESTAMBUL - A medida que prosigue el conflicto entre las fuerzas del gobierno y oposición en Irán, un factor que puede determinar el resultado -pero del que raramente se habla- es el calamitoso estado de la economía iraní. ¿Podrá ser su lamentable desempeño lo que termine por inclinar la balanza?

La economía de Irán la ha tenido difícil desde la misma Revolución Islámica, en parte debido al embargo económico impuesto por Estados Unidos hace tres décadas. Hoy Irán sufre escasez de productos tecnológicos y repuestos; el que fuera segundo productor de petróleo de entre los países de la OPEC en 2006 se ha convertido en importador neto de productos de petróleo refinado. De hecho, las condiciones de las industria petrolífera iraní se han deteriorado tanto en 2007 que se introdujo el racionamiento a la gasolina, abriendo paso a un floreciente mercado negro.

No es de sorprender que esta escasez haya generado inflación. En noviembre de 2009, el Banco Central Iraní (Bank Markazi) informó un alza anual del 22% del nivel de los precios. Para estimular el crecimiento, se han implementado nuevas medidas que permiten a los bancos extranjeros participar del sistema financiero iraní. Muchos han postulado, pero hasta el momento no se ha otorgado licencia alguna.

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