Chris Van Es

Das Scheitern der „Mullahnomie“ im Iran

ISTANBUL – In der Konfrontation zwischen Regierung und Opposition im Irak zeichnet sich bisher keinerlei Bewegung ab und es stellt sich die Frage, ob möglicherweise die – bisher wenig beachtete – desolate wirtschaftliche Situation den Ausschlag geben und zur Lösung der Erstarrung beitragen wird.

Die iranische Wirtschaft ist seit der islamischen Revolution in einer misslichen Lage, zum Teil aufgrund des von den USA vor drei Jahrzehnten auferlegten Wirtschaftsembargos. Heute fehlt es im Iran an Technologie und Ersatzteilen für bestehende Anlagen und der zweitgrößte Ölproduzent der OPEC importiert seit 2006 raffinierte Mineralölerzeugnisse. Die Situation in der iranischen Ölindustrie hat sich 2007 derart verschlechtert, dass das Benzin rationiert werden musste, wodurch ein florierender Schwarzhandel entstand.

Diese Verknappungen haben natürlich die Inflation angeheizt. Laut der iranischen Zentralbank, der Bank Markazi, stieg das jährliche Preisniveau 2009 um 22 Prozent. Um die Investition anzukurbeln, wurden neue Maßnahmen ergriffen, um ausländischen Banken den Zutritt zum iranischen Finanzsystem zu ermöglichen. Viele haben einen Antrag gestellt, aber bisher sind noch keine Lizenzen vergeben worden.

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