Chris Van Es

إيران واقتصاد الملالي الفاشل

اسطنبولـ مع استمرار المواجهة بين الحكومة والمعارضة في إيران، يتجلى عامل قد يحدد نتائج هذه المواجهة، ولكن هذا العامل نادراً ما يُناقَش، وهو يتلخص في الحالة البائسة التي بلغها الاقتصاد الإيراني. ولكن تُرى هل يكون الأداء المتصلب للاقتصاد سبباً في قلب التوازن هناك في نهاية المطاف؟

كان اقتصاد إيران يناضل منذ قيام الثورة الإسلامية، ويرجع هذا جزئياً إلى الحظر الاقتصادي الذي تفرضه الولايات المتحدة عليها منذ ثلاثة عقود. واليوم، مع حرمان إيران من التكنولوجيا وقطع الغيار للمعدات المتواجدة لديها، أصبح ثاني أكبر بلد منتج للنفط في منظمة الدول المصدرة للبترول (الأوبك) في عام 2006 مستورداً للمنتجات البترولية المكررة. وفي عام 2007 تدهورت الظروف في صناعة النفط الإيرانية إلى الحد الذي اضطر الحكومة إلى تقنين توزيع البنزين، الأمر الذي فتح الأبواب أمام سوق سوداء مزدهرة.

ومن غير المستغرب أن يؤدي هذا العجز إلى تغذية التضخم. ففي شهر نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني 2009، أعلن البنك المركزي الإيراني عن زيادة سنوية مقدارها 22% في مستويات الأسعار. وفي محاولة لتشجيع الاستثمار اتخذت الحكومة الإيرانية تدابير جديدة للسماح للبنوك الأجنبية بدخول النظام المالي الإيراني. ولقد تقدم العديد من البنوك بطلبات الحصول على الترخيص، ولكن حتى الآن لم يحصل على الترخيص أي بنك.

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