La estrategia electoral del Irán

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Las negociaciones sobre el programa nuclear del Irán han vuelto a chocar contra un muro, pero al Dirigente Supremo del país, Ayatolá Ali Jamenei, no parece preocuparle. De hecho, parece convencido de que ni los Estados Unidos ni Israel atacarán sus instalaciones nucleares… al menos no antes de las elecciones presidenciales de los EE.UU., que se celebrarán en  noviembre.

Resulta irónico que, aunque Jamenei no es un entusiasta de la democracia, cuente con que sus principales enemigos están atados por obligaciones democráticas. Jamenei controla el programa nuclear del Irán y su política exterior, pero los EE.UU. e Israel deben procurar alcanzar el consenso no sólo dentro de sus sistemas políticos respectivos, sino también entre ellos.

Los dirigentes del Irán, que siguen estrechamente los debates políticos israelíes, creen que Israel no lanzaría un ataque contra sus instalaciones nucleares sin la plena cooperación de los Estados Unidos, porque una acción unilateral pondría en peligro las relaciones de Israel con su más importante aliado estratégico. Como una ofensiva israelí tendría que estar coordinada con los EE.UU., mientras que un ataque americano no necesitaría el apoyo militar israelí, el Irán consideraría americanos los dos ataques.

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