Иранская предвыборная тактика

ВАШИНГТОН. Переговоры по ядерной программе Ирана снова зашли в тупик, но глава государства, аятолла Али Хаменеи, кажется, не обеспокоен по этому поводу. Действительно, Хаменеи, видимо, уверен, что ни Соединенные Штаты, ни Израиль не будут атаковать его ядерные объекты – по крайней мере, перед выборами президента США в ноябре.

По иронии судьбы, Хаменеи, не поклонник демократии, надеется на то, что его главные враги связаны демократическими ограничениями. Хаменеи контролирует иранскую ядерную программу и внешнюю политику, но США и Израилю надо постараться, чтобы достичь консенсуса не только в рамках соответствующих политических систем, но и между собой.

Иранские лидеры, которые внимательно следят за израильскими политическими дебатами, уверены, что Израиль не начнет атаку ядерных объектов без полного содействия с американской стороны, потому что односторонние действия поставят под угрозу отношения Израиля с одним из важнейших стратегических союзников. Так как израильское наступление должны быть согласовано с США, а американское нападение не потребует поддержки израильских военных сил, Иран склонен считать обе атаки американскими.

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