A estratégia eleitoral do Irão

WASHINGTON, DC - As negociações em torno do programa nuclear do Irão bateram, mais uma vez, contra a parede, mas o líder supremo do país, “ayatollah” Ali Khamenei, parece não estar preocupado. Na verdade, Khamenei parece convencido de que nem os Estados Unidos nem Israel atacarão as suas instalações nucleares - pelo menos não antes da eleição presidencial dos EUA em Novembro. 

Ironicamente, embora Khamenei não seja fã da democracia, baseia-se no facto de os seus principais inimigos estarem sujeitos aos constrangimentos democráticos. Khamenei controla o programa nuclear do Irão e a sua política externa, mas os EUA e Israel devem trabalhar para chegarem a um consenso, não só no âmbito dos respectivos sistemas políticos mas também entre si.

Os líderes do Irão, que seguem de perto os debates políticos israelitas, acreditam que Israel não iniciaria um ataque contra as suas instalações nucleares sem a cooperação total dos Estados Unidos, porque a acção unilateral iria prejudicar as relações de Israel com o seu aliado estratégico mais importante. Dado que uma ofensiva israelita precisaria de ser coordenada com os EUA, enquanto um ataque norte-americano não necessitaria do apoio militar de Israel, o Irão consideraria ambos os ataques como norte-americanos.

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