Irans Wahlstrategie

WASHINGTON, D.C.: Die Verhandlungen über das Atomprogramm des Iran stecken einmal mehr in der Sackgasse, doch den Obersten Führer des Landes, Ajatollah Ali Chamenei, scheint das nicht zu sorgen. Tatsächlich scheint Chamenei überzeugt, dass weder die USA noch Israel Irans Atomanlagen angreifen werden – zumindest nicht vor den US-Präsidentschaftswahlen im November.

Ironischerweise verlässt sich Chamenei, der kein Fan der Demokratie ist, auf die Tatsache, dass seine Hauptfeinde durch demokratische Zwänge gebunden sind. Chamenei kontrolliert Irans Atomprogramm und seine Außenpolitik, doch die USA und Israel müssen darauf hinarbeiten, einen Konsens nicht allein innerhalb ihrer jeweiligen politischen Systeme, sondern auch untereinander herzustellen.

Irans Führung, die den politischen Debatten in Israel genau folgt, ist überzeugt, dass Israel ohne die uneingeschränkte Kooperation der USA keinen Angriff auf die iranischen Atomanlagen einleiten wird, weil unilaterales Handeln Israels Beziehungen zu seinem wichtigsten strategischen Bündnispartner gefährden würde. Angesichts der Tatsache, dass eine israelische Offensive mit den USA koordiniert werden müsste, während ein amerikanischer Angriff keiner israelischen Militärunterstützung bedürfte, würde der Iran beide als amerikanische Angriffe betrachten.

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