Споры Ирана об Ираке

Ни одна страна на Ближнем Востоке не наблюдает за послевоенными событиями в Ираке внимательнее, чем Иран. Географическая близость, напряженная и кровавая история конфликта с Ираком Саддама Хуссейна, религиозные и эмоциональные связи с Ираком Ши'а и тревога, вызванная Соединенными Штатами и их политикой в регионе, - все это нити, которые связывают Иран с его западным соседом. Учитывая напряженные отношения с Америкой в настоящее время, Иран особенно обеспокоен вероятностью продолжающегося присутствия Соединенных Штатов по соседству, а также доминирующей ролью Америки в формировании будущего Ирака после свержения режима Саддама.

Посторонним может показаться, что за внутренними иранскими спорами трудно проследить, но они существуют и являются напряженными, даже если они не всегда заметны для широкой международной общественности. Можно распознать три основных подхода в развивающемся споре Ирана об Ираке после свержения режима Саддама.

Иранские прагматики утверждают, что Иран неизбежно должен сотрудничать с Соединенными Штатами в Ираке после свержения режима Саддама хотя бы только для того, чтобы гарантировать права населения Ши'а в Ираке. По этой причине Иран должен получить заверения в том, что новое руководство в Ираке не будет настроено враждебно по отношению к нему, и будет стремиться к дружественным двусторонним отношениям.

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