Le Débat iranien sur l'Irak

Aucun pays du Moyen-Orient ne suit les événements de l'après-guerre d'Irak d'aussi près que l'Iran. La proximité géographique, une histoire intense et violente de guerre avec l'Irak de Saddam Hussein, des connexions religieuses et émotionnelles avec les Chiites d'Irak, une certaine inquiétude quant aux États-Unis et à leur politique dans la région : ce sont là les fils qui unissent l'Iran à son voisin occidental. Vu les tensions sans fin avec l'Amérique, l'Iran est particulièrement concerné par la possibilité d'une présence américaine continue chez son voisin, ainsi que par le rôle dominant de l'Amérique dans la construction du futur de l'Irak de l'après-Saddam.

Les observateurs étrangers peuvent trouver difficile de suivre les débats internes iraniens, pourtant ils existent, ils sont intenses, même s'ils ne sont pas toujours visibles pour le public international en général. On peut dégager trois approches générales dans le débat iranien en constante évolution sur l'Irak de l'après-Saddam.

Les pragmatistes iraniens soutiennent que l'Iran devra inévitablement coopérer avec les États-Unis dans l'Irak de l'après-Saddam, même si ce n'est que pour s'assurer que les droits de la population chiite d'Irak sont respectés. Pour cette raison, l'Iran devrait gagner l'assurance que le nouveau leader irakien ne lui soit pas hostile et cherchera à se gagner des amitiés bilatérales.

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