Politics

Trump está fortaleciendo a los radicales de Irán

Oct 13, 2017 Abbas Milani

STANFORD – Estados Unidos e Irán rara vez coincidieron sobre cómo llevar adelante las conversaciones nucleares u otros elementos de sus relaciones bilaterales. Pero las sinergias y similitudes entre dos facciones -los iraníes intransigentes y los halcones de la actual administración norteamericana- son tan contradictorias como profundas. De hecho, la nueva estrategia de Donald Trump para Irán les ha dado a los radicales en Teherán motivos para celebrar, ya que han encontrado en el presidente estadounidense un aliado involuntario en su búsqueda de dominio político.

Durante años, los "radicales conservadores" de Irán -un concepto que combina conservadurismo extremo en cuestiones de fe y filosofía con visiones radicales sobre la violencia- han sostenido que la negociación y el reacercamiento con Estados Unidos son tontos e inútiles. Estados Unidos, creen estos representantes de línea dura, sólo está interesado en un cambio de régimen y en combatir al Islam en la región.

Esta visión ha llevado a Irán a alinearse más estrechamente con Rusia y China. Pero las sanciones devastadoras vinculadas a la actividad nuclear en los últimos años llevaron a la economía iraní al borde del colapso y los conservadores de Irán se vieron obligados a negociar de buena fe con la comunidad internacional.

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Francesco D'Allessandro Jan 7, 2018

Mr. Milani your memory of events after the JCPOA was signed is short in substance. Try to remember all the radical moves the regime made afterwards such as the January 2016 incident where American sailors from the US Navy were captured by the IRGC. Or the March 2016 missile test where "Israel Must Be Wiped Out" message was written in the shell of the rocket. Maybe you've forgotten too the speeches on Martyr's Day by various IRGC commanders including Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari addressing the crowds and the military in Bandar Abbas where he verbally attacks the USA and Israel. These three events happened during the Obama administration and we all know how he tried to appease the mullahs from Qom. No Mr. Milani whatever the current American president says will not make the Ayatollahs more radical nor affect the so-called moderates. The Iranian script will not change one iota until they succeed in destroying the State of Israel and the USA.
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j. von Hettlingen Oct 17, 2017

Abbas Milani says Trump and his hawks are making common cause with Iranian hardliners - to scuttle the 2015 nuclear deal. Although he did not overturn it with the stroke of a pen, he refused to recertify it, describing the deal as a "disaster" and claiming it has done nothing to curb Iran's "bad" behaviour. He accused Iran of testing missiles, stoking unrest and supporting regional proxy wars, but failed to realise that they do not constitute any violations of the deal, as provocative as they were.
Trump's move has been widely criticised as reckless, sparking an immediate backlash from world leaders and the other signatories - Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia - of the deal. As much as he hates Obama, tearing up an agreement that his predecessor made shows the world that the US is not a reliable negotiating partner. This is reason enough for North Korea to reject any negotiation with the US, knowing it would just be a waste of time.
The clerics and the military in Iran, who long opposed the deal are rejoicing, allowing themselves to cement their dominance. They are proud of their nuclear programme, and hated the idea of restricting sensitive nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of tough economic sanctions. They believe the US is seeking regime change, seeing "negotiation and rapprochement as "foolish and futile." Besides, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps control "large swaths" of the country's economy and have reaped the rewards of sanctons.
Hardliners oppose Rouhani’s agenda of economic reform that aims to tackle inefficient state-controlled enterprises and the lack of transparency resulting in high levels of corruption. Apart from "extreme conservatism in matters of faith and philosophy with radical views on violence," they close the country to the rest of the world, adopting a regional posture that is more militaristic than diplomatic, permanently at loggerheads with its rival, Saudi Arabia.
But most Iranians under 30, who make up over half of the country's population, do not want their country to be a pariah state, dependent on China and Russia and ostracised by the international community. They voted for Hassan Rouhani, because he is moderate and reform-minded. Iran has a young and modern population, with women voters being a force to be reckoned with. They yearn for more social freedoms. Observers doubt whether they are willing to be ruled by a supreme leader who purports to be God's representative on Earth.
The author says, a "powerful coalition of moderate forces – ranging from reformists and dissidents to civil-society actors - has long advocated for a more engaged foreign policy." They want to transform Iran into a responsible and respectable player, minimising the threat its nuclear programme poses. They also want to "deepen ties to the Iranian diaspora, in the hope that closer relationships could help solve some of Iran’s most daunting economic challenges." Such a move unsettles hardliners, because they see the attempt of fixing the dysfunctional economy as an encroachment on their authoritarian rule.
The world ignores Trump's unilateral action and seeks to preserve the nuclear agreement with Iran, even though critics and supporters are aware of its flaws. "But they saw the deal as an opportunity to engage Iranians who oppose the conservative radicals. American supporters believed that the vibrancy of Iranian civil society and social media boded well for the country, and hoped an Iran that was open to global markets would become more liberal politically."
While it is important to engage Iran in constructive dialogue and persuade the country to stop destabilising actions and work towards negotiated solutions that end sufferings in Syria and Yemen, Trump's shortsightedness and ignorance are appalling. His decision to abrogate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA was both selfish and biased, doing the bidding of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
This is - accordng to the author - "the worst of all policy options." Perhaps not for Trump himself. He might have wanted to do Benjamin Netanyahu a favour, but he may well expect a huge reward from King Salman for his action. Saudi Arabia has already showered his Trump Hotel with cash and pledged to donate $100 million to Ivanka Trump's proposed fund to aid women. This seems just the beginning of Saudi generosity.
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