obama iran press conference Ron Sachs/ZumaPress

En qué se equivocó Obama respecto de Irán

JERUSALÉN – Los pros y los contras del acuerdo con Irán sobre su programa nuclear se debatirán profusamente en los próximos dos meses, en el período previo a una votación sobre el acuerdo en el Congreso de Estados Unidos. Pero el llamado Plan de Acción Integral Conjunto (JCPOA por su sigla en inglés) será juzgado por su implementación, que demorará años.

De todas maneras, dos cosas ya son evidentes. Primero, las cláusulas más débiles del JCPOA -ambas engorrosas y abiertas a interpretaciones encontradas- son las que se refieren al cumplimiento y la verificación. De modo que ya existe cierto escepticismo respecto de la implementación.

Segundo, y más en lo inmediato, el propio éxito de un acuerdo entre Irán y los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas más Alemania (el P5+1) ya ha comenzado a afectar el equilibrio de poder regional. Por cierto, es legítimo preguntar si los negociadores occidentales (y especialmente Estados Unidos) eran conscientes de las implicancias geopolíticas del acuerdo.

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