obama iran press conference Ron Sachs/ZumaPress

Obama dans l’erreur face à la question iranienne

JÉRUSALEM – Les partisans et détracteurs de l’accord sur le nucléaire iranien débattront intensément au cours des deux prochains mois, à l’approche d’un vote du Congrès américain autour de cet accord. Pour autant, le fameux Plan d’action global conjoint (JCPOA) sera jugé sur sa mise en œuvre, qui s’étendra sur plusieurs années.

Néanmoins, deux aspects paraissent d’ores et déjà clairs. Premièrement, les dispositions les plus fragiles du JCPOA – à la fois dans leur lourdeur et en ce qu’elles ouvrent la voie à des interprétations concurrentes – sont précisément celles qui traitent de la conformité et de la vérification. Telles sont notamment les raisons du scepticisme entourant la mise en œuvre de l’accord.

Deuxièmement, et de manière plus immédiate, la conclusion même d’un accord entre l’Iran et les cinq membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies, auxquels s’ajoute l’Allemagne (le P5+1), a d’ores et déjà commencé à modifier l’équilibre régional des puissances. Il est en effet légitime de s’interroger sur la question de savoir si les négociateurs occidentaux (et notamment américains) sont conscients des retombées géopolitiques de cet accord.

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