P5+1 leaders Iran nuclear deal Prensa Internacional/ZumaPress

伊朗核协议的未来

纽约—“从杯子到嘴唇还有很大的距离,”英国旧谚有云。似乎已经解决的事情和笃定的事实之间亦是如此。如果波斯语中没有类似的表达,那么我预测很快就会出现。

原因当然是“关于伊朗核计划的全面协议条件”(Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program),即刚刚由伊朗和P5+1(中国、英国、法国、俄罗斯和美国等联合国五大常任理事国加上德国)达成的框架。该协议构成了重要的政治和外交里程碑,其所包含的细节和范围比许多人所预测的更多更广。

但尽管如此,该协议没有回答的问题至少与它所解决的问题一样多。在现实中——未来几周、几个月和几年将会证明——主要问题仍没有解决。更接近事实的说法是关于伊朗核协议的真正争论才刚刚开始。

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