Grandi contrattazioni con l’Iran

STOCCOLMA – Seppur lentamente, i negoziati dell’Iran con la comunità internazionale sul suo programma nucleare stanno sicuramente arrivando a uno stadio decisivo. E, fatto ancora più importante, il risultato potrebbe segnare un punto di svolta per il più vasto – e sempre più volatile – Medio Oriente.

Il riavvicinamento tra l’Iran e i suoi partner negoziali sul fulcro della questione nucleare è ovvio. Nessuno a questo punto crede seriamente che l’Iran stia mantenendo un programma attivo per sviluppare armi nucleari, sebbene non molto tempo fosse opinione diffusa che il Paese fosse in procinto di procurarsele.

Ora l’attenzione è garantire che l’Iran necessiti di un anno o poco più per assemblare un dispositivo nucleare se abbia mai deciso di farlo. Ma il concetto di “breakout time” (il tempo che sarebbe richiesto per passare dal nucleare civile al nucleare militare) è dubbio. Se dovesse venir meno la fiducia, e il regime iraniano decidesse di abrogare tutti i rilevanti accordi internazionali, è altamente probabile che ottenga le sue armi, anche se il Paese stesso è stato bombardato ripetutamente. L’enfasi strategica sul “breakout time” è quindi malriposta.

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