Les grandes négociations avec l'Iran

STOCKHOLM – Lentement mais sûrement, les négociations de l'Iran avec la communauté internationale sur son programme nucléaire se rapprochent du moment de vérité. Mais plus important encore, leur issue pourrait marquer un tournant pour le Moyen-Orient, une région à la fois plus large et de plus en plus instable.

Le rapprochement entre l'Iran et ses partenaires de négociation sur la question nucléaire de fond est indéniable. Personne à ce stade n'envisage sérieusement que l'Iran poursuive activement un programme de développement d'armes nucléaires, même si tout dernièrement presque tout le monde croyait que ce pays allait bientôt en disposer.

Il s'agit désormais de veiller à ce que l'Iran ait besoin d'un an ou deux ans pour assembler un dispositif nucléaire, dans le cas où il déciderait de poursuivre cet objectif. Mais le concept de « période critique » ne fait pas l'unanimité. Si la confiance devait s'effondrer et si le régime iranien avait décidé d'abroger tous ses accords internationaux dans ce domaine, il est fort probable qu'il aurait son arme, même si l'on bombardait le pays à plusieurs reprises. L'accent stratégique sur une « période critique » est donc déplacé.

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