与伊朗的隆重谈判

斯德哥尔摩——伊朗就核计划与国际社会展开的谈判正缓慢而坚定地走向决定成败的时刻。但更加重要的是,谈判结果可能标志着日益动荡的整个中东地区迎来转折。

伊朗与谈判伙伴间在核心核问题上的和解显而易见。现在已经没有人真的相信伊朗仍保留有发展核武器的积极计划,尽管不久前人们还普遍认为伊朗已非常接近拥有核武器。

现在的重点是确保伊朗需要一年左右的时间才能成功组装起核武器。但“突破时间”的概念令人怀疑。如果信任崩溃且伊朗政府决定废除所有相关国际协议,那么即使伊朗遭到反复轰炸,这个国家仍极有可能最终研制出核武器。因此对“突破时间”的战略性强调并不合理。

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