الصفقة الكبرى مع إيران

ستوكهولم ــ ببطء ولكن بثبات، تقترب محادثات إيران مع المجتمع الدولي بشأن برنامجها النووي من نقطة النجاح أو الانكسار. ولكن الأمر الأكثر أهمية هو أن النتيجة قد تمثل نقطة تحول بالنسبة الشرق الأوسط الأكبر ــ والمتزايد التقلب.

إن التقارب بين إيران وشركائها في عملية التفاوض بشأن القضية النووية الأساسية واضح. ولا أحد في هذه المرحلة يعتقد جاداً أن إيران تحافظ على برنامج نشط لتطوير الأسلحة النووية، برغم أن الحكمة السائدة قبل وقت ليس بالبعيد كانت أن إيران تقترب من الحصول على السلاح النووي.

والآن أصبح التركيز على ضمان أن إيران سوف تحتاج إلى عام أو نحو ذلك حتى تتمكن من تجميع قنبلة نووية إذا قررت ذلك في أي وقت. ولكن مفهوم "وقت الاختراق" مريب وملتبس. فإذا انهارت الثقة، وقرر النظام الإيراني إبطال كل الاتفاقيات الدولية ذات الصلة، من المرجح إلى حد كبير أن تحصل إيران على سلاحها النووي، حتى ولو قُصِفَت البلاد بشكل متكرر. وبالتالي فإن التركيز الاستراتيجي على "وقت الاختراق" في غير محله.

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