Iranians take part during a state-organized rally against anti-government protests Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

纸老虎伊朗

特拉维夫—以色列和阿拉伯领导人多年来一直在警告伊朗领导的什叶派帝国的崛起。这个帝国覆盖了中东大部。如今,伊朗通过一条横亘伊拉克、叙利亚和黎巴嫩的陆地走廊直通地中海,这让很多人高呼警告成真。但对伊朗作为地区霸权的恐惧大大地夸张了。

不可否认,中东充斥着局部冲突,这些冲突常常由彼此对抗的军阀发起。但让冲突成为燎原大火不符合所有地区行动方的利益。对伊朗尤其如此,它无力在境外部署常规军力。

事实上,伊朗核计划是为了补偿其面对邻国的常规军事劣势。伊朗周边敌人比朋友多。但是,伊朗核计划导致国际社会对其实施了严厉的制裁,结果反而妨碍了技术进步和军事投资,从而拖累了伊朗的进步。与此同时,伊朗的的人,特别是以色列和沙特阿拉伯,都拥有比伊朗大得多的军事预算,还能获得最先进的西方军事技术。

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