Os novos vencedores e vencidos do Médio Oriente

BERLIM – “A guerra”, disse o antigo filósofo grego Heráclito, é o “pai de todas as coisas”. Olhando para os sangrentos - na verdade bárbaros - eventos no Médio Oriente (e no Iraque e na Síria, em particular), pode-se ser tentado a concordar, mesmo que tais ideias não pareçam ter um lugar na visão do mundo pós-moderno da Europa de hoje.

Os triunfos militares do estado islâmico no Iraque e na Síria não estão só a alimentar uma catástrofe humanitária; também estão a atirar as alianças existentes na região para a desordem e até mesmo a pôr em causa as fronteiras nacionais. Um novo Médio Oriente está a emergir, um que já difere da velha ordem em dois aspectos importantes: o reforço do papel para os curdos e o Irão, e a diminuta influência dos poderes sunitas da região.

O Médio Oriente não está apenas a enfrentar o possível triunfo de uma força que procura alcançar os seus objectivos estratégicos através do assassinato e da escravidão em massa (por exemplo, das raparigas e mulheres yazidis). O que também se está a tornar aparente é o colapso da velha ordem da região, que existia mais ou menos inalterada desde o fim da Primeira Guerra Mundial, e com ele, o declínio das tradicionais potências estabilizadoras da região.

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