Der Iran konfrontiert die Realität

MADRID: Wer hat nicht schon mal an einem heißen Sommertag jenes Luftflimmern gesehen, das sich auf der Straße wie Wasser ausnimmt? Oder ein dreidimensionales Bild, das tatsächlich eine Abbildung auf einer flachen Oberfläche war? Es gehört zum Wesen einer Illusion, dass wir unsere Wahrnehmung für die Realität halten.

Dies gilt unabhängig davon, ob eine Illusion kognitiver oder politischer Art ist. Je nachdem, wie sich ein bestimmtes Ereignis entwickelt, kann es uns dazu führen, fehlerhafte Interpretationen des tatsächlichen Geschehens zu formulieren.

Derartige Wahrnehmungen werden häufig durch Ideen und frühere Erfahrungen herbeigeführt. Und wie Robert Jervis in seinem während des Kalten Krieges veröffentlichten Buch Perception and Misperception in International Politics argumentiert, haben die von uns erzeugten Illusionen enormen Einfluss auf die Entscheidungsfindung – und werden sogar zu einer grundlegenden Ursache für Konflikte.

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