伊朗直面现实

马德里—你见过酷暑时节高速公路上的水吗?你见过实际上是画在一张纸上的三维图画吗?幻觉的本质就是我们把我们所感觉到的东西误认为了事实。

不管是认知幻觉还是政治幻觉都是如此。一起特定事件的特定发展轨迹可能会导致我们对实际正在发生什么形成误判。

这种感觉通常会以观念和从前的经验为媒介。此外,正如罗伯特·杰维斯(Robert Jervis)在冷战时期出版的著作《国际政治中的感知和错误感知》(Perception and Misperception in International Politics)中所指出的,我们所形成的幻觉能够对决策形成重大影响力——即使它演变为冲突的基本原因。

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