Иран на развилке истории

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. История редко развивается плавно или равномерно. Наоборот, она имеет тенденцию двигаться скачками через череду основных событий: сражений, убийств, переворотов ‑ последствия которых сказываются в течение многих лет.

Спустя тридцать один год после революции, изгнавшей шаха и привнесшей исламские законы в Иран, для страны наступил решающий момент. Безусловно, мы не знаем степени, направления или темпов изменений. Что мы действительно знаем ‑ это то, что происходящее в Иране существенно затрагивает не только саму страну, но и весь Ближний Восток и зарубежье.

Одним из направлений будущего для Ирана может быть продолжением того, что уже существует, то есть, Иран, которым управляют консервативные клерикалы и агрессивные Стражи Революции, причем последние все более и более одерживают победу. Тогда иранский режим продолжит жестоко подавлять своих внутренних противников, вмешиваться во внутренние дела Ирака и Афганистана, вооружать и снабжать деньгами Хезболлу и Хамас и, самое главное, развивать возможности создания одного или более видов ядерного оружия и средств его доставки.

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