L'Iran à la croisée des chemins

NEW-YORK – L'Histoire ne se déroule généralement pas sans accroc. Sa trajectoire est jalonnée  de tournants, qu'il s'agisse de batailles, de guerres ou d'avancées dont les conséquences se font sentir pendant des années.

Trente et un an après la révolution iranienne qui a chassé le Shah pour le remplacer par un régime islamique, nous sommes à l'un de ces tournants. Nous ne connaissons pas le degré, la direction ou le rythme du changement qu'il va induire, mais nous savons que l'évolution de l'Iran ne va pas affecter simplement ce pays, mais tout le Moyen-Orient et bien au-delà.

Peut-être l'Iran va-t-il continuer sur la même voie, c'est à dire un régime sous la houlette des religieux conservateurs et des Gardiens de la Révolution agressifs, ces derniers prenant une importance grandissante. Le régime iranien continuerait à réprimer brutalement ses opposants à l'intérieur du pays, à intervenir en Irak et en Afghanistan, à armer et financer le Hezbollah et le Hamas et surtout à développer sa capacité de construire une ou plusieurs bombes nucléaires et leurs vecteurs.

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