站在历史十字路口的伊朗

发自纽约——历史的画卷很少会平静而顺利地铺展开来,相反,历史总会被某些重大事件所打断——比如战争,暗杀以及开创性的发现——而这些事件的后续影响,也将持续经年。

在伊朗推翻巴列维王朝并建立伊斯兰教法统治整整31年后,我们也同样迎来了一个历史的转折点。无可否认,我们对这场变革的剧烈程度,发展方向以及进展速度都心里没底。但我们所知道的,则是当前在伊朗所发生的事件不仅将影响这个国家,更将波及到整个中东以及更广大的地域。

对于伊朗来说,未来的其中一种走向就是继续延续现状,比如一个由保守派宗教学者和激进的伊斯兰革命卫队所把持,且后者权重不断增加的伊朗。伊朗政权将继续残酷镇压国内反对派,染指伊拉克和阿富汗事务,武装并资助黎巴嫩真主党和哈马斯,而更要紧的,则是制造一枚或多枚核武器并发展出相应的核武运载能力。

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