イラン:外交への最終出口

抑留:2006年5月26日(金)以前の発行はできません。.

イラン問題はますます危うい方向へ突き進んでいる。イランの野望が核兵器保有能力の獲得であるとする妥当な疑惑は、もはやあり得ない。しかしながら、問題の根底にはイラン政権の、イスラムまた地域の主権的勢力となり、それによって世界最強の国々と同じ視野に自らを位置づけたい、という熱望が横たわる。まさにこの望みこそが、イランを北朝鮮とは別のものにしている:北朝鮮が自らの孤立を守るため核兵器保有能力を伸ばそうとするのに対し、イランは地域の支配、そしてさらに上を目指しているのだ。

イランはその戦略的目標を達成する助けとして、中東の勢力構造における改革的な変化に賭けている。この観点から、イランはイスラエルとイスラエル‐パレスチナ紛争、さらにレバノン、シリア、あるいは彼らが湾岸諸国に対して持つ影響力、そして、なによりも、イラクを利用することができる。地域的なステータス・クオ(変化のない状態)を問題視する主権的な熱望の組み合わせ、そして核計画は、非常に危険である。

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