Iran: le contrat de la dernière chance

La crise iranienne évolue rapidement et de manière inquiétante. Il n'y a guère de doute que l'Iran veuille se doter de l'arme nucléaire. Au cœur du problème se trouve l'aspiration du régime iranien à devenir une puissance musulmane hégémonique au niveau régional afin de traiter à égalité avec les grandes puissances de la planète. C'est précisément cela qui distingue l'Iran de la Corée du Nord ; alors que cette dernière cherche à se doter de l'arme nucléaire pour conforter son isolation, l'Iran vise à dominer la région, et peut-être même au-delà.

Pour parvenir à atteindre son but, l'Iran parie sur des changements révolutionnaires dans la répartition des pouvoirs au Moyen-Orient. Pour cela, il met à profit son influence dans la région du Golfe, notamment en Irak, et il instrumentalise non seulement Israël et le conflit israélo-palestinien, mais également le Liban et la Syrie. Cette combinaison d'une aspiration hégémonique, d'une remise en question du statu quo régional et d'un programme nucléaire est extrêmement dangereuse.

Israël interpréterait l'acquisition de la bombe par l'Iran ou même sa capacité de la fabriquer comme une menace vitale, ce qui obligerait l'Occident - en particulier l'Europe - à intervenir. Si l'Europe a une dette morale envers Israël, elle a également des préoccupations quant à la situation sur la rive orientale de la Méditerranée qui tient une place de première importance dans sa stratégie de sécurité. Et si l'Iran dispose de l'arme nucléaire, il sera perçu comme une menace par ses voisins, ce qui entraînera probablement une course à l'armement dans la région et ajoutera à son instabilité. Autrement dit, un Iran nucléarisé posera un grave problème de sécurité à l'Europe. Croire qu'elle restera à l'extérieur de ce conflit est une dangereuse illusion.

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