伊朗:最后一线外交生机

伊朗危机正朝着令人担忧的方向急剧恶化。勿庸置疑,伊朗的野心是获得核武器制造能力。然而,问题的核心在于伊朗政权渴望成为伊斯兰世界的霸权力量和地区大国,从而与世界上最强大国家们平起平坐。恰恰是这种野心使得伊朗与北朝鲜截然不同。北朝鲜寻求核武器制造能力是为了保卫自己的与世隔绝状态,伊朗则是为了获得地区统治优势,并且还有更大的野心。

伊朗将赌注押在了中东的势力结构发生革命性变化从而帮助其实现战略目标。出于这种目的,它不仅利用以色列和巴以冲突,而且利用黎巴嫩、叙利亚及其在海湾地区的影响力,最重要的是利用伊拉克。霸权野心、对本地区现状的质疑以及核计划,这三者结合起来显得极为危险。

如果伊朗获得核弹或者获得了制造核弹的能力,以色列会将其视为生存的致命威胁,从而会要求西方特别是欧洲表明立场。欧洲不仅历史上就对保护以色列负有道义责任,而且在战略上至关重要的东地中海地区也有安全利益需要捍卫。此外,拥有核能力的伊朗将被其邻国视为一种威胁,这将可能引发地区军备竞赛,加剧该地区的动荡。总之,拥有核武器的伊朗将使得欧洲的基本安全面临挑战。认为欧洲将在这场冲突中置身事外是一个危险的幻想。

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