伊朗:来自地狱的又一团火焰

华盛顿——2010年,伊朗核计划的谈判模式始终无法摆脱流于形式之嫌。 在几乎所有努力折戟沉沙之后,国际外交已经越来越多地被有关制裁的探讨所取代——人们热衷于讨论如何运用制裁和谈判两种方式来迫使伊朗就范。 2011年,世界将再次关注全面经济制裁,这个糟糕的办法再度引起世人关注的时刻可能就在眼前。

当然从历史上看,通过制裁达到目标的记录似乎并不乐观。 事实上,制裁一直能很好地证明非预期后果法则。 因此我们或许可以退后一步,再次审视伊朗这个令人不快的谈判伙伴,以便确定哪些问题可以被列为外交重点。

与伊朗谈判当然绝非易事。 伊朗是中东地区历史最悠久的国家之一,具有深厚的文化底蕴。 虽然领导人留给公众的印像是残忍冷酷,但伊朗具有悠久的人道主义传统,曾沿伊朗边境线躲避萨达姆·侯赛因化学进攻的库尔德人可以证明这一点。 卑躬屈膝,更不用说彻底崩溃,在这样一个高傲的国家身上很难出现。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/zwyO1ej/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.