伊朗:来自地狱的又一团火焰

华盛顿——2010年,伊朗核计划的谈判模式始终无法摆脱流于形式之嫌。 在几乎所有努力折戟沉沙之后,国际外交已经越来越多地被有关制裁的探讨所取代——人们热衷于讨论如何运用制裁和谈判两种方式来迫使伊朗就范。 2011年,世界将再次关注全面经济制裁,这个糟糕的办法再度引起世人关注的时刻可能就在眼前。

当然从历史上看,通过制裁达到目标的记录似乎并不乐观。 事实上,制裁一直能很好地证明非预期后果法则。 因此我们或许可以退后一步,再次审视伊朗这个令人不快的谈判伙伴,以便确定哪些问题可以被列为外交重点。

与伊朗谈判当然绝非易事。 伊朗是中东地区历史最悠久的国家之一,具有深厚的文化底蕴。 虽然领导人留给公众的印像是残忍冷酷,但伊朗具有悠久的人道主义传统,曾沿伊朗边境线躲避萨达姆·侯赛因化学进攻的库尔德人可以证明这一点。 卑躬屈膝,更不用说彻底崩溃,在这样一个高傲的国家身上很难出现。

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