Archivo: Abc.doc

Fabio Giambiagi

Hay dos preguntas que en buena parte de América Latina los analistas se vienen haciendo en los últimos años. La primera es: Cuando va a acabar la fiesta de la abundancia de liquidez internacional? La segunda, a su vez, es: Qué va a pasar el día en que las cosas cambien? Y bien se podría incluir una tercera: El país se está preparando para cuando llegue ese día? En el caso de Brasil, la respuesta es ambigua.

Por un lado, es un hecho que, en materia de reformas, Brasil se quedó relativamente parado luego del inicio del Gobierno Lula. Cambios estructurales en temas como sistema tributario, reglas laborales o sistema jubilatorio simplemente brillaron por su ausencia. La métrica del mercado para evaluar a los Gobiernos depende de las condiciones de contexto. En situaciones críticas de la economía mundial, en el pasado, se le exigía a Brasil compromisos que muchas veces eran casi imposibles de cumplir, en función de la realidad política. Hoy, sin avanzar en prácticamente nada en materia de reformas, hay un relajamiento generalizado que empieza justamente en los mercados, totalmente satisfechos con Brasil a pesar de que temas como las distorsiones del sistema tributario, la rigidez laboral o la precocidad de las jubilaciones, siguen tan vigentes como antes.

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  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.

    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?

    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

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