Unverwundbares Brasilien?

Zwei Fragen haben in den letzten Jahren die Wirtschaftsdebatte in Lateinamerika bestimmt. Erstens, wann ist das Ende der derzeitigen Phase großer internationaler Liquidität erreicht? Zweitens, was geschieht, wenn es so weit ist? Wir könnten in diesem Zusammenhang auch eine dritte Frage hinzufügen: Bereiten sich die Regierungen Lateinamerikas auf diesen Tag vor? Im Fall von Brasilien scheint die Antwort unklar, zumindest auf den ersten Blick.

Auf der einen Seite ist Brasilien, was die Wirtschaftsreformen angeht, nach dem Beginn der Amtsperiode von Präsident Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 2003 mehr oder weniger im Stillstand verharrt. Wichtige Änderungen an Steuerordnung, Arbeitsrecht und Rentensystem wurden einfach nicht vorgenommen.

Auf der anderen Seite scheinen dieselben Investoren, die Brasilien früher als Kreditgeber Verpflichtungen abverlangten, die aufgrund der politischen Lage nahezu unmöglich einzuhalten waren, jetzt im Allgemeinen vollkommen zufrieden mit Brasilien, trotz seiner wirtschaftspolitischen Lähmung.

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