美国财政,引火烧身

也许是因为过于变化无常,抑或是近几年全球金融市场的风云变幻—1994-95年在墨西哥,1997-98年在东亚,1998年在俄罗斯及之后在巴西、土耳其和阿根廷发生的金融危机—我们这些经济学家变得比过去几十年更关注货币关系和未来可能发生的灾难。

本月,总部设在瑞士的国际清算银行(BIS)对世界未来的金融风险表示了强烈的担忧。“所有受到金融危机影响的国家都经历了经济增长速度骤减”,BIS在提到前面的金融危机时如是说。它接着又引述了“全球经常账户的不平衡”,特别是“美国的对外赤字”,并将其描述为“一个发行硬通货的国家遇到如此严重的经常账户赤字问题是前所未有的。”简言之,世界已经变得“越来越容易受到金融动荡的影响。”

BIS暗示说一次以美国为中心的金融危机可能会使1933年以来的历次危机都小巫见大巫。但为了应对这种风险,BIS以标准教科书的形式颁布了一系列的建议。经济和政策存在不平衡现象的国家应该改变政策,由此回归平衡:“赤字国家应该将国内支出的增长率降到低于国内生产的增长率。允许它们的货币实际地贬值可以使它们的产品更具竞争力,还能激励生产从非贸易型向贸易型转变。”

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