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达拉斯 ——

OPEC (石油输出国组织)成员国不断增长的石油消费和逐渐抬头的国家主义导致了原油出口下降,并迫使国际石油公司在全球石油需求日益上涨的背景下以低储量向高成本领域进行投资。这种情况下,石油价格或许最终将打破 2008 年的最高纪录。考虑到经济、政治、自然以及技术因素,价格进一步波动将是短期的主要特征。只需对近期进行回顾,便可了解原由。

投机商能够影响短期石油价格并提高其波动性,而市场基本要素及政府行动则能为 2003 年至 2008 年年中石油价格疯涨做出解释。期间,虽然 2005-08 年全球石油生产相对平稳,但特别在发展中国家,石油需求却有所上升。为满足不断增长的需求,动用 OPEC 备用储量及商业库存是唯一途径。一旦备用储量耗尽并且商业库存低至威胁未来预计需求,石油价格便会连创新高。

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