Estrategia de inversión después de la crisis

MILÁN – Los inversores han resultado seriamente afectados por la crisis actual. Hoy hay lecciones que se están aprendiendo y estrategias de inversión que se están revisando.

Me da la impresión de que la lección central para los inversores es que no todos los componentes de riesgo son estáticos, sino que evolucionan de maneras que todavía no se comprenden plenamente –y de las que la regulación gubernamental no puede ocuparse en su totalidad-. Por ese motivo, también debería entrar en juego la capacidad de autocorrección de los mercados, lo cual requiere que las estrategias de inversión intenten tomar en cuenta la posibilidad de riesgo sistémico.

Pueden surgir amenazas al sistema en su totalidad de una manera que resulta difícil de detectar, y que puede causar que las estrategias de mitigación de riesgo que funcionan bien en tiempos normales pasen a funcionar mal. Por supuesto, no todos los años ocurren alteraciones sistémicas importantes. Más bien, la inestabilidad va aumentando hasta que el sistema sufre una sacudida y se reajusta, pero el momento exacto en que esto se produce es impredecible. Esto significa que ocuparse del riesgo sistémico requiere un margen de tiempo más prolongado que el asociado con los riesgos no sistémicos y estacionarios a los que los inversores dedican gran parte de su atención.  

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