Des stratégies d’investissement pour l’après-crise

MILAN – Les investisseurs ont été durement touchés par la crise actuelle. Des leçons ont été tirées de l’expérience et les stratégies d’investissements réexaminées.

A mon sens, la principale leçon à l’attention des investisseurs est que les différents éléments du risque ne sont pas tous statiques et évoluent d’une manière qui n’est pas encore pleinement comprise – et que les réglementations nationales ne parviennent pas à maîtriser pleinement. Pour cette raison, la capacité des marchés à se corriger d’eux-mêmes doit également jouer un rôle, et implique que les stratégies d’investissement cherchent à prendre en compte la possibilité de risque systémique.

Les menaces posées à l’ensemble du système peuvent survenir d’une façon imprévue, ce qui peut amener des stratégies d’atténuation des risques convenant en période normale à ne plus être adaptées. Bien sûr, des perturbations systémiques majeures ne se produisent pas chaque année. Au contraire, l’instabilité va croissant jusqu’à ce que le système subisse un choc et se repositionne, selon un calendrier imprévisible. Cela signifie qu’évaluer les risques systémiques nécessite de prendre en compte une période de temps plus longue que celle associée aux risques stationnaires non systémiques auxquels les investisseurs accordent en général le plus d’attention.

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