استراتيجية الاستثمار بعد الأزمة

ميلانو ـ لقد تلقى المستثمرون أشد الضربات بسبب الأزمة الحالية. والآن بدأ تنقيح استراتيجيات الاستثمار من واقع الدروس المستفادة.

وفي اعتقادي أن الدرس الرئيسي الذي تعلمه المستثمرون هو أن ليس كل عناصر المجازفة جامدة، بل إنها تتطور بطرق غير مفهومة بالكامل حتى الآن ـ ولا يستطيع التنظيم الحكومي أن يعالجها بشكل كامل. ولهذا السبب فإن قدرة الأسواق على تصحيح ذاتها لابد وأن تلعب دوراً هنا أيضاً، وهو ما يفرض على استراتيجيات الاستثمار أن تحاول وضع احتمالات المجازفة الشاملة في الحسبان .

إن المخاطر التي تهدد النظام بالكامل من الممكن أن تنشأ على نحو من الصعب استكشافه، وهذا من شأنه أن يؤدي إلى ابتكار استراتيجيات تخفيف المجازفة التي تعمل على نحو طيب في حالات الخلل في الأوقات العادية. وبطبيعة الحال، لا تحدث الاضطرابات الشاملة الكبرى كل عام. بل إن عوامل عدم الاستقرار تتراكم إلى أن يصاب النظام بالصدمة ويتوقف عن العمل، وفي توقيت لا يمكن التنبؤ به. وهذا يعني أن التعامل مع المجازفة الشاملة يتطلب فترة زمنية أطول من تلك الفترة المرتبطة بالمجازفات الثابتة غير الشاملة والتي يوليها المستثمرون القدر الأعظم من اهتمامهم.

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