India Economy Narinder Nanu/Stringer

Invertir en un mundo de fronteras cerradas

CAMBRIDGE – Los inversores, al igual que los astrónomos y los antropólogos, se basan en modelos intelectuales para darle sentido a un universo complicado, servir de guía en elecciones inmediatas y fijar prioridades para una futura investigación. Pero, de tanto en tanto, un acontecimiento anómalo nos obliga a repensar lo que creemos que sabemos. Podría ser un agujero negro. Podría ser un fósil extraño. O podría ser un alzamiento político, como el referendo por el Brexit en el Reino Unido o la elección de Donald Trump como presidente de Estados  Unidos.

En este año tumultuoso que está llegando a su fin, los mercados globales vertiginosos siguen marcando nuevos récords. Pero los inversores no deberían distraerse. En 2017, necesitarán revalorar el modo en que funciona la economía global y recalibrar de manera acorde la evaluación que hagan de cada acción o bono en venta, porque aún si algunos elementos fundamentales del mercado siguen siendo los mismos, es evidente que muchos otros cambiaron.

Durante por lo menos veinte años, la mayoría de los inversores aceptaron el consenso entre los economistas y los politólogos de que el mundo se estaba volviendo más pequeño y más integrado. Con el ascenso de China y la India, una tercera parte de los habitantes del mundo se volvieron trabajadores y consumidores en la economía global. Y las nuevas tecnologías ofrecieron comunicaciones baratas, una robótica avanzada y un análisis de datos cada vez más potente, lo cual les permitió a las empresas reducir sus inventarios e integrar las cadenas de suministro.

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