Sommeil d’or

CAMBRIDGE – En principe, la détention d'or est une forme d'assurance contre la guerre, un Armageddon financier et une dépréciation massive de la monnaie. Ainsi, dès le début de la crise financière mondiale, le prix de l'or a souvent été dépeint comme un baromètre de l'insécurité économique mondiale. Dès lors, doit-on voir dans l'effondrement du prix de l'or – d’un pic à 1900 $ l'once en août 2011 à moins de 1250 $ début juillet 2013 – un vote de confiance dans l'économie mondiale ?

Dire que le marché de l'or affiche toutes les caractéristiques classiques d'une bulle qui a éclaté serait simplificateur. Il ne fait aucun doute que l’escalade grisante de l'or jusqu’à son sommet, en partant d’environ 350 $ l’once en juillet 2003, a fait saliver les investisseurs. Le prix augmentait aujourd'hui parce que tout le monde avait acquis la conviction qu’il continuerait à augmenter demain.

Des médecins et des dentistes se sont mis à vendre leurs stocks pour acheter des pièces d’or. La demande pour les bijoux en or en Inde et en Chine a grimpé. Les banques centrales des marchés émergents ont commencé à diversifier leurs réserves en vendant des dollars pour de l’or.

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