Goud is een gok, net als alle andere beleggingen

CAMBRIDGE – In principe is het bezit van goud een manier om je te verzekeren tegen de gevolgen van oorlogen, een financieel Armageddon of een grootschalige geldontwaarding. En vanaf het begin van de mondiale financiële crisis is de goudprijs dikwijls afgeschilderd als een barometer voor de mondiale economische onzekerheid. Kan de ineenstorting van de goudprijs – van een hoogtepunt van $1900 per ounce in augustus 2011 naar nog geen $1250 per ounce aan het begin van juli 2013 – dus worden gezien als een blijk van vertrouwen in de mondiale economie?

Als je zegt dat de goudmarkt alle klassieke kenmerken tentoonspreidt van een zeepbel die is gebarsten, maak je je schuldig aan overmatige versimpeling. Er is geen twijfel aan dat de gestage stijging van de goudprijs, van ongeveer $350 per ounce in juli 2003 naar de recente piek, beleggers het water in de mond heeft doen lopen. De prijs bleef stijgen omdat iedereen ervan overtuigd was geraakt dat hij morgen nog verder zou stijgen.

Artsen en tandartsen begonnen aandelen te verkopen en gouden munten in te kopen. In India en China rees de vraag naar gouden sieraden de pan uit. De centrale banken van de opkomende landen zetten een deel van hun reserves om van dollars in goud.

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