Economics

黄金的沉寂

Jul 8, 2013 Kenneth Rogoff

发自剑桥——原则上，持有黄金是为了应对战争、金融末日和大规模货币贬值的保险形式。而且自全球金融危机爆发以来，黄金价格一直被形容为反映全球经济不稳定态势的晴雨表。那么，黄金价格的跳水——从2011年8月的1,900美元/盎司跌到2013年7月初的1,250美元/盎司——就代表着人们对全球经济投下了信任票吗？

要说黄金市场显示出所有破产泡沫的经典特征就未免过于简单化了。毫无疑问，在从2003年七月的350美元/盎司迅猛上升到峰值的过程中，黄金成为了投资者们垂涎的对象。因为所有人都曾确信明天的黄金价格一定会比今天涨得更高，所以黄金价格一路高歌猛进。

医生和牙医们都开始抛售股票并购买金币。印度和中国对黄金首饰的需求飞涨。新兴市场国家的中央银行都将部分美元变成黄金。

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Kenneth Rogoff

Writing for PS since 2002
246 Commentaries

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton University Press, 2011) and author of The Curse of Cash (Princeton University Press, 2016).

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Parrain Boursorama Jan 12, 2014

It is instructive that Professor Rogoff cites Harmston. The value of gold is more discussed than the value of bread but there is no doubt which one is the more important and it is not the value of the mineral. Malthusian limits will devalue gold in the long run.
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Moritz G€d1g Jul 25, 2013

It WAS hard to argue that investors need gold as a hedge against high inflation and it remains so.
I doubt that small inverstors are "unload"ing gold, most likely they are sticking to them rather than realizing and admitting the loss.
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Roman Bleifer Jul 14, 2013

Like any other commodity, gold has costs Its price may vary depending on many factors. The question is whether the gold to act as a special commodity, the universal equivalent, the universal measure of value in today's economy .. Judging by the scale of its price fluctuations, it can not perform this function. You can not enter twice into the same river. The era of gold as a special commodity completed. Formation of a new financial system is just beginning. It will appear as a result of the development process. A tool of this process is a systematic global crisis. ( http://crisismir.com/analiticheskie-materialy/ekonomika/13-mirovoj-ekonomicheskij-krizis-prichiny-i-posledstviya-quo-vadis.html )
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Frank O'Callaghan Jul 9, 2013

It is instructive that Professor Rogoff cites Harmston. The value of gold is more discussed than the value of bread but there is no doubt which one is the more important and it is not the value of the mineral. Malthusian limits will devalue gold in the long run.
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Procyon Mukherjee Jul 9, 2013

If one tracks the Gold Price surge and its current downhill trend, it almost coincides with banks offloading their financial products in the wake of the crisis and the current return of the same when things have settled down. The replacement of financial products with Gold by the banks is one more example of how banks are adding to the speculative demand of a commodity as a second fiddle to their normal products on offer. This is true for Aluminum as well, and could be true for a basket of commodities.
- Jose araujo Jul 9, 2013
  
  Procyon: There is nothing speculative about the gold movement, just think a bit. Gold was/is regarded has a safe harbor for inflation, so its normal for the demand of gold to increase in the inflation expectations are high due to all the fuss about QE, the moment reality proved the Austrians wrong, Inflation remained low, and we could see that QE was causing no inflation, then demand for gold diminished pushing gold prices down.
  
  This is just common sense, and on empirical evidence that inflationistas are wrong, they just son't wan't to admit to that.
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donna jorgo Jul 8, 2013

surprise surprise ..I waiting something different .
Q ..who make grade the gold price ? $ ,euro, y ?
with what logic can someone say TO DAY Gold is ---up
tomorrow ----down so this variable from one day to other is SO unstable ?
the game is like this ..but the physical Gold never use the value ..
thank you
1 ton is one ton
1 kg is 1 kg ..no one can change ..just exchange move the volume ..
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